Huge cumulative sugar stocks of major producing countries (especially India) and the weakening BRL/USD are two factors suppressing global sugar price so far. Moreover, the 2019/20 global sugar deficit of 3.8m tonnes (based on F.O. Lichts forecast) isn’t enough to push the global sugar price much higher than its current level. USDA projects 2019/20 global sugar stocks of 47.8m tonnes, down by 6% YoY, led by India (16.9m tonnes), Thailand (6.4m tonnes) and China (4.5m tonnes). The BRL/USD currency rate has depreciated to its one-year low at BRL4.21/USD on Sep 13, 2019 (against BRL4.23 on Sep 4, 2018).
KSL believes that the Indian government’s 6m-tonne export subsidy program will limit the price upside to only 13-14 cents/lb. However, if the hedge funds decide to reduce their short position, the price is likely to hit 15 cents/lb. Overall, the global sugar price will stay in a 12-15 cents/lb range in 2020. The Office of the Cane and Sugar Board locked-in its sugar sales price at 12.83 cents/lb for 2018/19 but it has not yet settled the price with its clients for 2019/20 (probably 13 cents/lb).
Znaci,zalihe su jos velike i nista posebno dobro se nece dogoditi 2019-2020.Poticaji za uzgoj secerne repe i izvoz u Indiji posebno,jako limitiraju mogucnosti rasta cijene.
Evo novog izvješća za Centar-South Brazil regiju:vidi se povećanje proizvodnje etanola te smanjenje proizvodnje šećera.Trend povećanja proizvodnje etanola će se i u buduće nastaviti obzirom na veće cijene.
Evo link:https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/092319-center-south-brazil-h1-september-sugar-cane-crush-rises-4-on-year-survey
ISMA je procijenila da će Indija proizvesti 28.2 mil.t. šećera za 2019/2020. no ta procjena će biti niža zbog najnovijih informacija proizvodnje šećera u Maharashtra regiji. Naime,oni će proizvesti svega 5.2 mil.t šećera u odnosu na prvotne procjene od 6.3-7 mil.t, što je pad proizvodnje za 50% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu (njihova polja su bila poplavljena te su usjevi propali).
Današnje izvješće UNICE: Proizvodnja šećera u South Centar Brazil regiji za 2019/2020. god. će pasti na svoju 14-godišnju razinu od 25 mil. t. šećera.
Evo nove analize za Centar-South Brazil regiju:vidi se povećanje proizvodnje etanola te smanjenje proizvodnje šećera.Trend povećanja proizvodnje etanola će se i u buduće nastaviti obzirom na veće cijene.
Evo link:https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/092319-center-south-brazil-h1-september-sugar-cane-crush-rises-4-on-year-survey
Evo još malo starih (1.6.19′) i novih (16.09.19′) prognoza proizvodnje Indije:
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/sugar-production-for-2019-2020-projected-to-be-14-per-cent-lower-at-28-mn-tonnes-isma/article28244980.ece
http://www.ukrsugar.com/en/post/india-20192020-sugar-output-could-fall-20
Njihova godišnja potrošnja iznosi oko 26.5 mil.t. šećera što znači da Indija neće imati suficit u proizvodnji šećera za 2019/2020.
Mogli bi ocekivati cijene kod nas u tom slucaju na cca 470 eura po toni i Viro jako profitabilan.
Tko je jamio jamio je. Prometi mizerija.
Ima mnogo firmi na našoj burzi koje bi mogle proći kao Kraš, da netko s istoka poremeti planove ovima sa zapada.
Kokice u ruke i gledat gledalicu
Dosta procjena o prozvodnji secera je revidirano u 9. mjesecu i nize su od prethodnih.Npr. pogledajte i Australiju.O Brazilu i Indiji sam vec pisala. Pocetkom 10. Mjeseca izlazi novo izvjesce ISOa pa bi tu moglo biti svega…
The Office of the Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) projects the sugar industry will lose 10 billion baht in the upcoming sugar-crushing season because of the baht’s appreciation and the global oversupply. The season usually starts in late November and ends in early May. “Thai farmers and millers will suffer from these negative factors,” said Warawan Chitaroon, the OCSB’s secretary-general. “The baht’s strength will cause 6 billion baht in losses for sugar exports this season.”
Tajland,danas.Projekcije gubitaka secerne industrije tamo .Kada oni gube sa proizvodnjom iz secerne trske,koliki ce biti tek gubici kod klasucnih secerana u europi?Nema nikakvih naznaka poboljsanja u narednih godinu-dvije.
Drago mi je da se blizimo kraju pa taman i da padne.
The Office of the Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) projects the sugar industry will lose 10 billion baht in the upcoming sugar-crushing season because of the baht's appreciation and the global oversupply. The season usually starts in late November and ends in early May. "Thai farmers and millers will suffer from these negative factors," said Warawan Chitaroon, the OCSB's secretary-general. "The baht's strength will cause 6 billion baht in losses for sugar exports this season."
Tajland,danas.Projekcije gubitaka secerne industrije tamo .Kada oni gube sa proizvodnjom iz secerne trske,koliki ce biti tek gubici kod klasucnih secerana u europi?Nema nikakvih naznaka poboljsanja u narednih godinu-dvije.
Kaj je je.
Indija u drami.
A londonska zabit crta drugu pricu
Sugar decreased 0.40 Cents/LB or 3.35% since the beginning of 2019, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Sugar reached an all time high of 65.20 in November of 1974 and a record low of 1.25 in January of 1967.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/sugar
Sudeci po CFD cijenama i ocekivanju u buducnosti,ocekivanja su negativna,a dali ce se VIRO i kako , “izvuci” iz ove krize,ne znam.
Tek uzgred,troskovi proizvodnje secera iz secerne trske su daleko nizi nego iz secerne repe.
Šta nisu zalihe 9 mil tona?
Ono, kad ti remorker kaze da spamas temu 🙂