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APB Comments (5)

The author does not understand that natural gas supply takes longer to rebound than it does to drop and he is overly optimistic in his reasoning regarding a rebound in drilling activity. Shale gas wells typically lose as much as 80% of their production during year one! That is significant when you consider the unprecedented drop in the rig count. Furthermore, when the rigs leave the natural gas fields they are going to the oil fields (such a the Bakken) along with their crews. Therefore these rigs are not coming back anytime soon. Mike Watford of Ultra Petroleum said during a recent conference call that "anyone who thinks drilling will pick up when gas hits four dollars is miss-thinking." This is because the average cost of production is well over six dollars and also due to the inavailability of rigs. The natural gas E&P sector no longer has the internally generated cash nor access to credit necessary to fund large drilling programs, and the access to debt will not come back until a sustained period of higher natural gas prices. Shell and other majors are continuing to vacate the natural fields and production will therefore continue to drop until prices are profitable. And as far as the natural gas produced from oil wells, this too has been over estimated. Many mistakes are being made by the general media, but that is where the opportunities are created.
21 May, 09:07 AMReplyLike8

…nadam se da si se makao…jer je opako pljusnuo…žurim [wink]

…nadam se da si se makao…jer je opako pljusnuo…žurim [wink]
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izasao na vrijeme, prerano usao, ocekivao sam support na 50 %, medutim ocigledno ce biti na 61, 8.
sto se fundamenata za natgas tice, meni to dobro izgleda.
rig count iz tjedna u tjedan radi novi low, injection je 34 % manji od proslogodisnjeg, demand izvlaci elektrane, iako bi volio vidjeti povecanje i u ostalim segmentima.
tehnicki i dalje sam uvjeren da je 1.9 bio dno, da je natgas u bullu, i da voznja od 1.9 do 2.76 nije bila korekcija dugogodisnjeg bear trenda nego pocetak novog bulla.
poz.

iako nam je medo prijetio zadnjih par tjedana, danas se bik pokazao u punom sjaju.
natgas + 13 %, ugaz + 40 %, cestitke paulo santosu na izvrsnom predvidanju fundamenata i pada proizvodnje u natgasu.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/natural-gas-etf-rise-another-25-august-elliott-175859458.html

…koga ti pitaš…pa nezna on ni što je gas…bullish zatvaranje tjedna,iznad 2,6

up…lol…

manji pull backovi nisu vrijedni spomena…lol

key level 2,6 man razvaljen [wink]

ho,ho,ho…uči se blentavi tigre…fb ti je krajnji domet…ja 20% imam za dan-dva [sealed]

Ovdje upišite svoj komentar… [lol]

inventories up 57 bcf, ocekivano 52 bcf
i pored toplog vremena, iznad ocekivanje, shalle gas nas jebe, morat cemo i ovdje vidjeti pad horizontal rigs-a.

danas je 03.07…..

7 dana je proslo, a ovo je prdac u prazno…
[undecid]

danas je 03.07…..

7 dana je proslo, a ovo je prdac u prazno…
[undecid]
[/quote]

danas je 05.07
ugaz je na visim razinama nego kad je philips rekao da ima 20 %.
sto se mene tice osobno, ove razine su mi privlacne za short, zivi bili pa vidjeli.

…hebo ja sebe ako on nije tu bio na 1,9…2002 je došao do 1,85…nekakav double bottom je
imao 2,128 su satrali…danas backtest…closed 2,19,meni lomg graf govori da ovo upravo struže
po dnu,da je upravo krajem 1/3 god. bottom…gledam cikklus od 30 mjeseci…@Mr.
založi se malo,lol,što kažu hebeni gurui…onom mom sa 9.mj.ne vjerujem ništa,lol.
i danas in-out BOIL

[wink]
[/quote]
…podsjećam blesimetra na ovaj post…još od 27.4….čitaj i divi se…imbecilu…lol
@Mr.W…,pohvale za doprinos na ovoj temi sa svojim postovima,čujemo se!

[wink]