dajte mi 2,64 close lol

el nino svakim danom sve vise jaca, probijena potpora, this weak injection +100 bcf, storage vjerovatno preko 4 tcf, prva potpora 2.4.
http://ngwdd.com/

gore od očekivanog +106 bcf, ne izgleda nimalo dobro za natty, nastavi li el nino ovim tempom mogli bi vrlo lako tesitarti i all time low 1.9

sve očekivano 2,64 i trassssssssss…ahahahhahahhahaaa

ajde vec je red bio da se netko pojavi, mrtvilo ovdje zadnjih dana.
gadno to izgleda phile, bit ce 4 tcf i vice na kraju, el nino ode skroz na 11 mjesec, izgleda gore nego kad je natty zavrsio na 1.9, jos uvijek hold

previše posla @Mr.GJ…slušaj…imam sjajan timing tu…ima vremena…
ok [emo_namigusa]

@Mr.slijedeća dva tjedna sa tehničke strane su odlučujuća…
fundamentalno…proanaliziraj…i vidi…je li tehnika i fundamenti
mogu zajedno(očekujem dno) [emo_namigusa]

wtf 1,95 bio…još jednom…može li bolje…ahahhahahhahaha

natty ponovno testira ATL 1.9., ovaj put probija, slijedecih par EIA izvjestaja bearish, vrijeme i dalje iznadprosjecno toplo

i to je to, ispod 1.9, danas -5%m nemam pojma zasto nisam shortao ovo kad sam vec prija par mjeseci najavio da ce ova zima biti toplija nego ona u 2012, a proizvodnja na ATH.

I just spent some time going over the 2/15 12z forecasts and the El Nino stuff.

What is weird about the GFS forecast is before that part you attached, the flows looks like it should be really cold. At about 5 days to 7 days it shows ridging developing on the West Coast and extending way up into Canada and an adjacent low developing in the Midwest creating what would normally be a cold weather chute going practically due south.

But, the stuff just isn’t very cold. I think the West Coast ridge that springs up so quickly may be from latent heat released along the Northwest Coast. They have one of those Atmospheric Rivers running up that way and the forecasts are showing a chunk of precipitation around that time.

From a week to two weeks it really looks like it should be colder than it works out to be from the forecast. About Feb. 25th it shows a system setup that would normally mean pretty frigid temps. But, the stuff that makes it south is actually pretty mild. Chicago gets to the mid-teens, there are some puffs of cold that extend south, but nothing really cold anywhere and what semi-cold there is doesn’t make it very far south.

The GFS is forecasting stuff that you would expect to bring cold — lows around the Hudson-Baffin Bay area looping around on themselves and coming back this way. But, they just don’t seem to bring much cold or bring it very deep.

The Euro shows more zonal winds across Canada, less cold penetrating to the CONUS, and less of that low pressure loop around stuff from NE Canada. It looks really warm to me. The GFS seems like it is threatening that kind of higher latitude zonal wind across Canada, but it doesn’t happen to the same extent that the Euro is forecasting.

El Nino is undoubtedly playing a role in some of the warmth. The stream going into the Pacific NW is being fed by deep tropical convection west of the dateline, the forecast shows warm flow coming up from the Southern Hemisphere for a bit, the Pacific Jet shows signs of strengthening more, and there is some so-so deep tropical convection that has been going on in the Central and East Pacific.

I am thinking, however, that the lack of cold is more being caused by how hot it has been earlier in the year. First, 2015 was the hottest year on record globally and one of the hottest for the CONUS. Then you had the El Nino thrown on top of that and a really warm December. Then the big storm over the New Year’s period and the storm that caused the NE blizzard both punched a lot of heat up into the Arctic.

It kind of seems like something pretty dramatic would have to happen for us to get much more cold, like some kind of Siberian Express coming our way, or some kind of even bigger loop around from the Hudson Bay area. Can’t rule that out this year with how funky the Arctic has been and the warming that has been hitting the Stratosphere (and the forecast still has more warming jumping around).

But, it seems to me that somewhat normal system alignment and flow is probably going to yield pretty warm weather for at least the first week of March and probably longer than that. If unusual weather happens, it seems to me that is more likely to favor really warm as opposed to really cold. The lows and cold in NE Canada seem to threaten to move off, but have still hung around. More zonal wind might pull them further to the northeast.

Siberia still has a ton of cold, of course, but it has been leaking that to its south the past few days and the forecasts seem to show it continuing to move in that direction. That doesn’t mean cold from that area won’t come our way, but I would think it would make it somewhat less likely.

It also seems that globally we are overdue for more zonal winds in the higher latitudes. This El Nino has been unusual in that the zonal wind anomalies have been strongest in the higher latitudes, not in the region of the Pacific Jet where they are generally expected to be strongest during an El Nino. But lately even the higher latitudes haven’t had much in the way of zonal winds. Pretty much regardless of whether they are higher or lower in latitude, if we get more zonal wind I would expect that to have a warming effect on what is currently forecast.

I’m currently short and I don’t plan on touching that lightly. I think I see more possibilities for strong warming than I do for any significant cold.

storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) —
last week: 166 (3cdd 163hdd)
previous week: 206(1cdd 205hdd)
same week last yr: 218 (1cdd 217hdd)
avg: 219 (2cdd 217hdd)
next wk fcst 186 (0cdd 186dd)
* source: NOAA

storage:
same week last yr: -153
5-yr avg: -168

*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

my final estimate is -89 bcf

zakljucak, storage bearish, EIA report bearish, midterm forecast bearish, proizvodnja neutral, short term fprecast opasnost od jos jednog polarnog udara , mala, ali oprezno s ovim bullish,

sve u svemu,short, testirat ce dno, march i april, razina koju ja gledam kao long term bottom je oko 1.5