ajd’…i to je to…za danas [emo_namigusa]
storage:
same week last yr: -165
5-yr avg: -125
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is -108 bcf
sutra nakon dugo vremena bi trebao biti bear EIA izvjestaj u odnosu na last year i 5 year avg, bit ce interesantno vidjeti reakciju marketa, da li je ova korkecija vec ukalkulirana u sutrasnju brojku i fokus ce se vratiti na weather koji je jos uvijek bullish ili ceto biti pocetak vracanja na 4.-4.5
pardon od umora, dodao 4.5 na gornji post, po meni ako otvori u minusu prije EIA izvjestaja otvaram malu long poziciju.
…ugaz 25,75 [emo_namigusa]
…samo pola ure bio…utop oko 28,30
this weeks storage poll is for week ending 8/29 and reported by EIA on 9/4.
observations:
national population weighted temperatures were warmer than the week prior, increasing related generation demand by an estimated 9bcf on the week.
exports to mexico and residential/commercial use was recorded lower by 2.6bcf from the previous week.
domestic production is pushing up equivalent figures to record levels set for storage week ending 8/14. the lack of maintenance along with stronger demand allowed high flow rates from congested lines in the northeast.
pipeline data for this week’s report is pointing towards a 77bcf injection, however our pipe samplings have been overestimating recent EIA reports by around 7bcf over the past month.
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) —
last week: 74 (72cdd 2hdd)
previous week: 67 (62cdd 2hdd)
same week last yr: 73 (72cdd 1hdd)
avg: 64 (58cdd 6hdd)
next wk fcst 82 (81cdd 1hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: 60
5-yr avg: 56
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my current estimate is 74 bcf
Mr. dramatični pomaci…sa 4,62cca…na gledam 3,66…brutala…natty je to [emo_smijesak]
al
.
planiram uletjeti…ovaj mjesec…full…pratiti folksi…trebalo mi je dve
minute…za analizu…long jasno [emo_namigusa]
I admit I was one of the ones who predicted 73 BCF/d of domestic dry production. As a matter of fact, I think I started at 73 and upped my forecast to something like 75.3.
What happened? Actually not much: i) A little bit more maintenance for a little bit longer (some of which is related to takeaway projects that will expand production capacity); ii) prices being a little lower for a little longer with notice that they were going to be a little lower for a little longer than people expected, hence a little less rush to bring production online; iii) the oil price downturn being a little more protracted than most people initially anticipated (me included, initially).
None of that really makes squat difference. Please do recall that I think it was me that initially posted the Railroad Commission info on the Eagle Ford. I try to follow this stuff pretty closely.
And yes, I was actually a bit surprised that the EF rolled over as quite as quickly as it did. On the other hand, if I had to pick one formation where natty production would decline the fastest, it would have been the Eagle Ford. I said as much on posts here or one another page.
And it still doesn’t make squat difference on total production. What does make a difference is that Marcellus and Utica producers have been getting less than bean wind for their natty. They are fighting each other. They can’t wait to market elsewhere. They will crank up production just as much as their exposure to real demand allows. Which means that they will replace any declines in areas they can access (which is growing larger over time) with new production.
The GOM has been declining Big Time for quite a while. It has been really, really declining since the Deepwater Horizon in April 2010. Those declines were part of what offset all the new production. The GOM has bottomed, and last time I looked turned around. A lot of the production you are referring to is historical production that ain’t going to decline a whole lot more on a month over month basis. The question is more how quick the Marcellus/Utica can get takeaway to get to other markets.
natty update
storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) —
last week: 83 (82cdd 1hdd)
previous week: 72 (71cdd 1hdd)
same week last yr: 62 (60cdd 2hdd)
avg: 69 (67cdd 2hdd)
next wk fcst 72 (68cdd 4hdd)
* source: NOAA
storage:
same week last yr: 77
5-yr avg: 61
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls
my estimate is 61 bcf
izmedu bullish i neutral bi trebao biti ovaj tjedan, 61 bcf, slijedeci tjedan je oko 90 bcf, bentek iznenadujuce nisko i za ovaj i slijedeci tjedan, premarket 2.67, mislim da cu ovako odigrati, probati uci u ugaz na razinama natty-a oko 2.66- 2.65, pricekati izvjestaj i poslije pobjeci van, ako ne bude po planu islo ostaviti poziciju i dokupljivati, ne vidm natgas ispod 2.5. do pocetka novog bulla-, long weather forecast vise bullish nego neutral.
oh boy…graf mi je u glavi…2,5…ako danas ne bude bullis…zatvore
ispod 2,64 sutra…crash do prvog tjedna u 9-om,a oda brutala[emo_palacg]
meni dgaz izgleda ok…RSI 57 macd sjajno…trenutno drži se iznad ma 200