Dok su brokeri suzdržano slijegali ramenima, bezuspješno skenirajući svježi news-flow u potrazi za kredibilnim motivom koji bi opravdao vrlo intenzivan rast cijene, dionice Jadranskog naftovoda (JNAF-R-A) jučer su usamljeno čamile na listi suspendiranih izdanja, suvereno zauzevši vodeću poziciju na ljestvici dobitnika. Bio je to deveti dan uzastopnog rasta cijene dionica, no jučerašnjom je trgovinom uvelike nadmašen dotadašnji intenzitet pozitivnog trenda, nakon što je cijena najprije dogurala do 8.150 kuna, da bi naknadnim skokom do svježeg rekorda od 9.000 kuna isprovocirala primjenu Pravilnika, osiguravši suspenziju trgovine do kraja dana. Jer svega dvadesetak realiziranih transakcija, kojima nije dosegnut niti prag od milijun kuna, potaknulo je doista dramatičan skok cijene, kojim je samo u jednom danu tržišna kapitalizacija tvrtke uvećana za čak petinu, čime se cijena dionica u samo tri mjeseca – udvostručila. I to čak mjesec dana prije očekivanog dolaska ruskog predsjednika Putina, s kojim će zasigurno biti govora i o dobavnim pravcima nafte iz Rusije, odnosno, o projektu DružbAdria i eventualnim modifikacijama istoga. Za to vrijeme, brojnim se inicijativama naftovodne cijevi, barem u zamišljenim planovima, guraju i u najzabačenije kutke balkanskog poluotoka (Bugarska je jučer ratificirala projekt naftovoda od Burgasa do Alexandroupolisa), uvelike raspirujući maštu ulagača koji drže da bi i Janaf trebao ugrabiti svoj dio kolača.
No izuzmemo li Janaf, koji je svojim poklonicima pružio doista pregršt razloga za veselje, ostatak domaćeg tržišta kapitala zapravo i nije ponudio većih uzbuđenja, a najnovija korekcija u Kini, koja je uvelike zabrinula brojne investitore, uvjetujući nešto zamjetniju korekciju na globalnoj razini, pronašla je put i do Zagrebačke burze. Barem nominalno, budući je CROBEX, nakon blagih pozitivnih pomaka, kraj jučerašnje trgovine dočekao na negativnom teritoriju, zabilježivši pad vrijednosti od 0,3 posto. Pritom je status najlikvidnijeg izdanja (sa 13,7 milijuna kuna prometa), i to ponovo zahvaljujući blok-transakciji, odnio – Viro (VIRO-R-A). No za razliku od sličnog scenarija prošloga tjedna, kojim je vlasnika promijenilo više od 3 posto vlasničkog udjela, a u konačnici samo učvršćena dominacija mirovinskih fondova, kao najjačih institucionalnih investitora u vlasničkoj strukturi, ovoga je puta prošao paket od “svega” 10.000 dionica. Transakcija je realizirana po identičnoj cijeni od 1.300 kuna po dionici, a zamjetan je diskont vjerojatno donekle omeo planove optimista, te u konačnici niti dnevni maksimum od 1.380 kuna, nije bio dovoljan za pozitivan pomak cijene (-0,3 posto), usprkos najavljenoj finalizaciji projekta povezivanja domaćih šećerana, te prognozama o povećanju proizvodnje već u ovoj godini. Nešto više od 9,5 milijuna kuna prometa skupila je INA (INA-R-A), oporavljajući se od nedavne korekcije, makar je pri kraju dana entuzijazam ulagača splasnuo, svodeći pozitivan pomak na skromnijih 0,7 posto (do zaključnih 3.151 kunu). S druge pak strane, preteškim se teretom pokazala hipoteka u obliku niza svježih rekorda za Luku Rijeka (LKRI-R-A), čije su se dionice treći dan zaredom našle na negativnom teritoriju, zabilježivši pad od 4,3 posto.
Važna obavijest:
Sukladno članku 94. Zakona o elektroničkim medijima, komentiranje članaka na web portalu Poslovni.hr dopušteno je samo registriranim korisnicima. Svaki korisnik koji želi komentirati članke obvezan je prethodno se upoznati s Pravilima komentiranja na web portalu Poslovni.hr te sa zabranama propisanim stavkom 2. članka 94. Zakona.3. DIO:
Bearing in mind the additional (already signed) PEOP agreement and a
Croatian prime minister’s recently publicly announced further doubling
the existing JANAF pipelines and the reverse direction transport
enabling, you can do the math yourself.
Mr. Engdahl (the author of “The century of war”) as a guest of the
Croatian ministry of economy emphasized the advanatageous geographic
position of Croatia as an oil transport crossroad. He also announced the
publishing of his next book that would cover the issue of Druzba Adria
in specific.
Whatever the reason, there were some 70.000 US troops reported (in
October 2005) to be relocated from the central Europe and Asia to
Romania. This is the country where the PEOP pipeline begins. Is the
military in Romania ment as a logistical support for the troops in Iraq
or as a security for the PEPO pipeline is for you to decide.
In todays’ “Jutarnji list” (May 25th) there is announced the arrival of
president Putin’s envoy who is to prepare the arrival of Putin in
Croatia.
NASTAVAK PRETHODNOGA:
The sole benefitiary of the NO GO for the project would, hance, be
Ukraine. That is the reason why the Ukrainian parlament refused to give
its OK for Druzba Adria in November, 2003. Only three days after that
decission there were anti-government protests held in the streets of
Kiev (this was BEFORE the “orange revolution”). In Fabruary, 2004. the
Ukrainian parlament signs its agreement with the Druzba Adria project.
Coincidence ?
Due to the ecology (and closely connected tourism) reasons, Croatia
has so fare managed to postpond the signement of the Druzba Adria
agreement. Ever since, any other Croatian initiative to either invite
Putin to visit Croatia or to make the Croatian prime minister visit
Russia was met with the cold statement from the Russians that no such
visits were forseeable in the near future if the Druzba Adria agreement
was not signed by the Croatian government first.
Croatian prime minister (Mr. Sanader) has recently made a
TV statement that Croatia is interested in both PEOP and Druzba Adria
agreements and that Croatia intends to double the presently existing
JANAF pipeline. This was further confirmed with his newspaper comment
(“Poslovni dnevnik” – Croatian bussiness newspaper) that he is in favour
of Druzba Adria. The very next day, the arrival of Putin to Croatia was
“miraculously” announced by the Russians.
President Putin is to visit Croatia for the energy
releted summit held in Zagreb (Croatia) on June 23rd, this year. The
very consent of president Putin to comme to Croatia is (in my modest
oppinion) a sign that the Druzba Adria agreement will be signed at that
time or perhaps even sooner. The prices of the JANAF stock are expected
to go skyward. And yes, time(ing) IS money !
It is not long ago that the JANAF pipeline has been
techinicly checked and verifyed as safe for transport. It was also
enabled to transport the oil in a reverse direction as well. This was
utilised by the Slovak government that has signed the agreement with
JANAF to store and deliver the oil to Slovakia in case Russia decides to
turn off the oil supply again in the future. In that case, the oil would
be transported from the other oil-supplying countries by tankers to
Croatia, stored there and on a need to be basis pumped by JANAF to the
heart of Europe (Slovakia).
It is now time to make a killing in the market, BEFORE Putin’s visit
to Croatia – if you dare, that is.
Usefull insight:
Conoco Philips has an approx. 10% interest in Lukoil,
which has a 13% interest in Hungarian MOL, which has a 25% interest in
INA (Croatian oil industry company), which has a 16% interst in JANAF.
And Lukoil has the gas pump stations on the eastern US coast !
Past tense:
To counter the (untill that time) very strong ecology
opposition and a solid Croatian public anti-Druzba Adria sentiment a few
months ago, the Croatian economist and a future candidate for the
position of the Prime Minister, Mr. Ljubo Jurcic in a TV interview said:
“If the Americans and Russians show interest that the oil will go in
this direction, and they do show this interest, than the oil WILL go in
this direction”. This anti-Druzba Adria sentiment is fortunatelly not
present any more in Croatia, ever since the Russians have turned off the
oil and gas supply to Ukraine, Belorus and European Union countries.
Needless to say, Croatia is also oil dependent.
In his interview (July, 17th 2005) for a Croatian newspaper Jutarnji
list, the board director of the Croatian oil company INA, Mr. Tomislav
Dragichevich, said that with the Druzba Adria agreement, JANAF’s current
capacity of 5 million tons of transported oil per year would increase to
25 million.
Bearing in mind the additional (already signed) PEOP agreement and a
Croatian prime minister’s recentl
U prilogu je interni dopis jednog od investicijskih fondova
EMERGING MARKETS – THE “Y” THING
The future prospects of the Croatian oil-pipeline company JANAF
(Jadranski naftovod):
JANAF is an end-extention of the two other great oil pipelines: PEOP
(for Caspian sea oil transport) and Druzba Adria (for the central Russan
oil transport). To simplify the matter: if we see Druzba Adria and PEOP
pipelines as the two upper parts of the letter “Y”, than the JANAF
pipeline would be its lower part. JANAF would be where the oil from the
PEOP and Druzba Adria pipelines would flow to.
PEOP agreement was signed a few days ago – so that PEOP
will be fully operational by the year 2012. The American and Russian
representatives were present at the event.
Unlike the PEOP pipeline, Druzba Adria is already completly built –
only waiting for the agreement to be signed, making it possible for the
Russian oil to flow imediatelly afterwords.
In May 2004., the Russian president Putin announced (in
front of the Russian parlament Duma) that Druzba Adria oil pipeline is a
Russian national interst number one (!!) The purpose of this pipeline is
the transport of the Russian oil to the Adriatic sea and thereafter, by
means of tankers further to the United States.
How resolved are the Russians ?
Untill now the Russian oil is transported by pipelines to the
Ukrainian ports. Thereafter it is loaded to tankers that carried it to
its end destination – the USA. The problem that is in the way is the
Turky’s effort to significantly reduce the tanker transport through the
narrouw and therefore hazardous Bosporous and Dardanll streit (ecology,
tourism etc.).
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