Nije zamrla – prvo se gledalo Poslovni klub gdje se pumpalo s depresivnim podacima i sad Otvoreno. Gledam jel da idem po strik sutra ili ne?
[/quote]

Još kad Jadranka svečano objavi da je Šuker novi ministar gospodarstva ima da ponestane štrika i u Bauhausu
[/quote]
[lol]

Eto kolega samo ste isprovocirali temu, a bila vam je skoro zamrla, pa ste mogli nešto danas i prodati sa plusom.

ovako će to biti jako teško
pogotovo kad vidim kako je naše drage kolege ( bljedolike ) uhvatila nervoza
a ona je jako loš savjetnik

no da vidimo kakva je situacija što se tiče ove teme?
-postoje dvije struje na forumu ( ivana oprosti što pišem tvojim stilom, ali moram puno toga nabrajati, pa eto…. )
-jedna koja vidi razloge za optimizam, i koji su djelomično u pravu jer naša burza je prilično nisko i da nije bilo političko-kriminalnih afera danas bi crobex bio na 2.500 a možda i više
-no s druge strane ta ista grupacija zaboravlja da je prošla kao bos po trnju kada ih je zadnji put držala neumjereno zadovoljstvo
-dakle završili su sa suzama u očima i žestokim gubicima na portfoliu
-s druge strane postoji druga grupacija koja, pretežno rukovođena užasno lošim stanjem u realnom sektoru ( a ništa bolji nije ni nerealnom ) misli da treba biti izuzetno oprezan, i djelomično su u pravu, jer ipak smo mi inestitori/spekulanti koji po definiciji žele zaraditi i ne boje se rizika

– pa tko je bliže istini?
– optimisti ili pesimisti?

Mislim da je istina na strani onih koji imaju argumente, jer stavovi ovih bez argumenata ne znači ništa.
Apsolutna nula.
Na korisnicima koji čitaju temu ( svaku pa i ovu ) je da to sami procijene!

ps poruka Vjeki!
Vjeko daj molim te odmoderiraj kolegu Fedju, doista ne znam tko ga piše ali to je istinski poznavatelj, što se vidi po tekstovima, za razliku od nekih koji to nisu( neosnovano ) a misle za sebe ( ničim izazvani ) da jesu!

poseban pozdrav kolegama Flyeru i Beri ( koji rijetko pišu ) a imaju izvanredno znanje [thumbsup]

@vidra

Ne znam čime sam zaslužio ovakvu čast da se najveći poznavatelj burze u Hrvata, čovjek koji je predvidio i vrh i dno Crobexa i uvijek bio na pravoj strani trenda, zauzme za mene ali eto hvala.
Samo da dodam da je vidra bio veliki igrač na burzi dok još nije bilo ni foruma ni interneta.
Čovjek je legenda u pravom smislu te riječi i vjerovatno jedini na ovom forumu koji stvarno zna.
Da ne pričam o tome da je u Top 10 na nekoliko dionica.Pozdrav legendi

Zahvaljujem na pohvalama, ali mislim da možda malo pretjerujete, ja samo pokušavam pratiti svjetska i domaća zbivanja…….

Ima ovdje na forumu izvanrednih forumaša, samo što je problem što ne žele dijeliti svoje teško stečeno znanje sa drugima već samo piskaraju navlakačke postove kad se ćele riješiti dijela istih

Već i vrapci na grani znaju koji su to!

Još jednom hvala na pohvalama iako moram još jednom istaknuti da ste odličan i iskusan forumaš i da ne zaslužujete pisati pod moderiranjem!

kao prilog temi puštam Vaš post sa teme Ina na ovu temu jer ima elemente Crnog Labuda………

Ina: Vlada odustaje od kupnje plinskog biznisa!?

"Tako će se država poštedjeti izdvajanja 700 milijuna kuna, preuzimanja još jednog gubitaša, no blokada tog projekta mogla bi dodatno odgoditi ionako neizvjesnu otplatu Inina poreznog duga državi. Prema dogovoru s Vladom, Ina je trebala do kraja godine platiti porezni dug, koji se ovisno o tome kako plaća tekuće obveze, kreće od 1,3 do dvije milijarde kuna. Ini je za plaćanje tih obveza novac trebao osigurati MOL, kod kojeg bi se hrvatska naftna kompanija zadužila po tržišnim uvjetima. Međutim, i iz Ine i Iz MOL-a u više su navrata poručivali da je preduvjet za tu pozajmicu izdvajanje plinskog biznisa.
Ako od tog posla ništa ne bude, a raspoloženje u Vladi je trenutno takvo, pitanje je hoće li Ina uspjeti dobiti kredit kod svog najvećeg pojedinačnog vlasnika – mađarskog MOL-a. U tom slučaju ruši se i treći, posljednji ovogodišnji rebalans proračuna u koji je ugrađena i naplata poreza i doprinosa od Ine. U slučaju da Ina ne uspije osigurati kredit ni kod MOL-a, ali ni kod poslovnih banaka, Ministarstvo financija morat će ostvariti svoju najavu o blokadi računa te kompanije i tako do kraja godine namiriti barem dio potraživanja. Naši sugovornici iz Vlade s kojima smo razgovarali o toj temi ne žele, iako su do kraja godine ostala nepuna dva mjeseca, ni razmišljati o tome što bi se dogodilo da Ina ne plati dug ili još gore da joj Porezna uprava mora blokirati račun.

http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/t…og-biznisa!%3f,60218.html

Zanimljivo, meni ovo izgleda kao da je Vlada već odlučila blokirati račun INA-e i da je ovaj potez baš u tom smjeru.

A da mu dignemo spomenik u bronci ispred ZSE u prirodnoj velicini u pozi s telefonom u ruci kak zadaje naloge? Onak kak su u Mostaru digli spomenik Bruce Leeu? [lol]

‘Mother of Carry Trades’ Leading to ‘Asset Bust’: Roubini
Published: Wednesday, 4 Nov 2009 | 8:19 AM ET Text Size By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com

The "mother of all carry trades" that Nouriel Roubini warned of recently is growing and threatening to cause a global implosion, the economist warned in a CNBC interview.

CNBC.com
Nouriel Roubini
——————————————————————————–

For the second time in as many weeks, Roubini cautioned that investors using cheap US dollars to embrace risk will quickly reverse course once the greenback strengthens.

But he intensified his prediction, saying that the likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates low and thus weakening the dollar will prolong the carry trade and make it all the more painful when it starts to unwind. Roubini is an economist at New York University and chairman of RGE Monitor.

"Eventually there’s going to be an end to this carry trade," he said in an interview. "When that snapback of the dollar is going occur it’s not going to be 2 percent or 3 percent, it’s going to be more like 25 or 20 percent. And then everybody will have to close their shorts on the dollar, they’ll have to sell these risky assets across the world and you could have this huge asset bubble going into an asset bust."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33616897

@vidra

Dragi moj kolega

Govorite o istini,

Istina kratkoročno 6-9mjeseci nema blage veze sa burzom niti je ikada imala, niti će ikada imati.
Na burzi su nedavno izašla izvješća a neke dionice kotiraju puno bolje nego lani u isto vrijeme kada su im izvješća bila briljantna a kratkoročna perspektiva izvrsna.
Danas te iste firme imaju loša izvješća a perspektivu puno lošiju a cijena raste ili je na puno većoj razini nego lani.
ZAŠTO – zbog istine ili nečeg drugog.
Puno je razloga a po meni najbitniji je struktura vlasništva odnosno interesa pojedinih institucionalnih ulagača da ovakve firme drže visoko ili nisko.

Da bi ZSE zaživjela u punom sjaju firme koje na njoj kotiraju prije svega trebaju istu koristiti za prikupljanje novca.
Rijetke su firme koje su u potpunosti iskoristile kapacitete burze, a naše navjeće perjanice vrlo malo ili nikako.
Danas kada je kredit skup, mislim da je tržišta kapitala prava prilika za skupiti novce.
– dokapitalizacijama
– izdavanjem komercijalnih zapisa.

Komercijalni zapisi nose rizik za izdavatelja, a dokapitalizacija je kompliciranija ali ipak najeftinija za izdavatelja ujedno i najbezbolnija solucija – ali treba odobrovoljiti velike institucionalne ulagače na istu.
E sad se ponovno vraćamo u strukturu ulagača- odnosno da li ulagači vjeruju u svoju firmu ili ne.

November 03, 2009

Whats Wrong With Consumer Confidence?
by Guy Lerner

This is an interesting video taken from CNBC’s "Squawk On The Street".

The show’s host, Mark Haines, is incredulous that last Tuesday’s consumer confidence number came in lower than expected. Haines mutters: "What the heck is that all about?" As Haines goes onto explain, housing is higher in most major markets and corporate profits are better. The only thing missing was the next statement out of his mouth, and I will fill in the blanks: "What do people want?"

It just goes to show how divorced Wall Street is from Main Street.

The show’s talking heads or those people in the boxes suggest that the real angst Americans have is rising gas prices at the pump, increasing health care costs, and an uncertain labor market. This is all true, but I don’t think that it is the real source of America’s angst.

The real source of America’s angst is a sense that something is terribly wrong. What that something is isn’t tangible – like higher gas prices – but it is palpable. Maybe it is the lack of leadership in Washington or the inability of that leadership to do anything but put our problems off for another day.

There is no collective purpose to the actions coming out of Washington. There is no common cause that Americans can rally around. Bailouts and government programs, like "cash for clunkers", have perpetuated the same old thing. The bailouts have favored the connected or those who where irresponsible in the first place. Is this the American way?

This is not the change that Americans wanted. They voted for it, but this is not the change that Americans wanted.

So what kind of change did Americans want?

For this we need to go back to September, 2001 and the War on Terror. With the attack on America, President Bush was handed a golden opportunity to galvanize Americans in a common cause, but instead all he asked of his fellow countrymen was to go to the malls and continue shopping. The soldier in combat made the sacrifice, but this is what they do. Their sacrifice was unconditional, and this was understood and accepted by all. But where was the sacrifice asked of the ordinary American here at home? At the very least, shouldn’t we have been asked to cut back on our consumption of large cars and oil to decrease our reliance on those very same foreigners who were at war with America? I am sure my fellow citizens would have been willing to act for the greater good, but they were never asked. This was President Bush’s biggest failing.

Now we come to President Obama. His crisis isn’t the War on Terror, but a generational economic crisis. President Obama did come to the electorate and say "we need to change the way we do business" referring to the grid lock and bipartisanship in Washington. I think the President believed this. From an idealogical perspective, Republicans and Democrats need to work together to solve the problems this country faces.

Despite the political rhetoric, President Obama did not understand the kind of change Americans seek. It isn’t so much what he has done (i.e., wasted a lot of money) but what he has failed to do (i.e, galvanize the country in a common cause) that is so discouraging. Even if the other guy (Senator McCain) was elected, he probably would have done the same thing – thrown good money after bad – as this was what was being recommended by the economic of this country. Oh, these were the same economic leaders who missed the crisis in the first place.

But like his predecessor, President Obama is missing what kind of change Americans really want and why there continues to be so much dissatisfaction. Americans are willing and ready to make that sacrifice to improve their nation and the future of this nation for their children – provided that burden is shared by all. The only problem is that no one has asked them to make that sac

pa recimo propast aig bi mogla dovsti do grde situacije…

ali stari oblik depresije je nemoć u ovim uvjetima

Personal bankruptcies surge 9%

The number of Americans filing personal bankruptcies surged 9% in October, and were on target for the highest annual total in four years, according to a report issued Wednesday.
The nearly 9% increase in consumer bankruptcy filings in October, together with a 7% jump reported in business cases, demonstrates the sustained stress on the U.S. economy,"

Zamislite da kod nas postoji osobni bankrot.Mislim da bi već bili u Velikoj depresiji 3

Devon net income falls 81%, beats target

Pa hebote koliki je bio target? Da im padne 100%? [lol]

Another View At Goldman’s Trading Perfection And Statistical Improbabilities
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2009 11:03 -0500

Ben BernankebernankeGoldman SachsmoneyPerformanceRevenueSEC

When a firm’s trading performance challenges not only all preconceptions of realistic trading, but also of statistical distributions, one can merely stand back and watch in awe. Attached is a graphic of what a rigged, backstopped and manipulated market is all about. The chart demonstrates Goldman’s YTD trading track record: out of 194 trading days in 2009, the firm has made over $100 million on 116 occasions! This alone accounts for $11.6 billion in revenue (and is likely much more as Goldman could have easily had a $1 billion trading day in the rightmost bracket as it is open ended). Assuming midline averages for any given bucket and multiplying by the amount of days that the firm traded within these, Goldman Sachs has made $15 billion courtesy of the skewed and very highly improbable (but not impossible, thank you taxpayers and Ben Bernanke) chart.

And a more granular read, demonstrates that as the year has progressed, Goldman has become much better at extracting larger wins and minimizing losses. The firm lost money on just 3 days in the last two quarters. Is this a ponzi scheme? We surely don’t know absent additional information (which will never be forthcoming, despite that GS is a public company). Is this comparable to the returns generated by a ponzi scheme? Absofuckinlutely.

Can the SEC please dissolve itself already and save taxpayers at least a little money?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/another-view-goldmans-trading-perfection-and-statistical-improbabilities