pa to sam i ja uočio a veze nemam sa TA. pa to je cijeli svijet uočio i uočava već danima.samo se o tom priča na svim stranim forumima. niš od tog.
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a ja sam uočio da još nisam uočio nijedan post od guvernera u kojem bi bila neka korisna informacija a ne bahato omalovažavanje tuđeg komentara.

@Brankica
molim te da nastaviš davati komentare ZSE bez obzira na reakcije "odabranih": rijetko se mogu naći takvi kvalitetni komentari i suvisle analize koje imaju teoretske temelje.
također pohvale cijelom ženskom timu TA foruma (soto, pluton, lulu).

glede S&P šampona:
slažem se sa lulu, treba vidjeti kako će se stvari razvijati, meni trenutno pad (dakle realizacija šampona) djeluje realnije od drugih scenarija.

I have been following commentary from Uempel, Mr. Panic of 1907/2009 and Mr. Dan Black over the past few months, and was drawn by the conversations of last week. It is very interesting.

As Mr Panic was suggesting there appears to be important Fibonacci sequences recurring through this market (SPX) linking highs and lows. Here are my observations (for what they are worth). This market appears to be trading in 21 week cycles made up of 8s and 13s. All fib numbers. Whilst the weekly observations are not all absolute lows or highs, I think they are all significant.

If we link the August 15th weekly high with the 9th Jan High, we have a 21 cycle. This is made up of 8 down, until 10th October (not absolute low, but certainly important), and the remaining 13 weeks up until 9th Jan.

Again if we use the 10th October weekly low and link that to the 6th March low we arrive at the 21 weekly cycle. (13 up until Jan highs, and 8 down until the SPX 666 march low).

Should this cycle repeat 21 weeks after the March lows, would bring us into the last week in July. This current cycle seemed to be in on course. However a 14th week high was established on the week of 12th June. (Thanks to two minute rip at the close of business on June 12th).
Nevertheless, this might not have been that significant, as that week might have seen the top. (Time will tell) Given, Jupiter turning retrograde on the 15th June alongside a 90 day Gann window, I personally think 956 will prove to be a fitting end to the Venus retrograde rally.

If this cycle is to continue, the market should be trying to forge significantly lower for an 8 week period from the 5th June – 12th June highs. Now if we try and marry this with the Puetz cycle, we are now in a period with two windows. Anything can happen. It is the second lunar eclipse after the solar eclipse that fits most neatly with this Fibonacci cycle. The 31st of July is the first day of the window (-6: +3) from 6th August Lunar eclipse.

Uempel notes on 5th July that there may be some halt to the downtrend on 24th -27th of July, but has conflicting information. This is a concern for me too about the above. I am not privy to Uempels indicators, but Steve Puetz refined his theories on evidence produced by Chris Caralon that crashes tend to end around the periods of a new moon. This would bring us to 20th August. Also Puetz documented that the panic phase has a strong tendency to be entirely encompassed within the time span plus or minus six weeks of an equinox. The August new moon satisfies these criteria.

This would correspond much better with Mr. Dan Black and Mr. Panics assessment. I am finding it hard to reconcile this with the existing Fibonacci cycle (8, 13, 21). Unless the 8 week down trend brings us only to a CRASH window.

Given that we are starting the 5th week of the 8 week down cycle and we are at 887.75 on SPX at time of writing. I think the next 4-7 weeks are open to a CRASH type situation. Whether this takes the form of daily burns, or one/two/three day inferno, I do not know. Personally I feel the March lows will not hold and will maintain a short bias. However I will look to enter long positions around this late July- mid August window should this opportunity present itself.

ingra bi mogla gore

peace

ne zelim biti sigurniji nego sto sam sada.
ovo je sasvim dovljno jer ostavlja prostora za razmiljanje o alternativnim scenarijima.

cini se da jos nije jasno jesmo li u cetvrtom ili 2 valu ili B valu.
tak i tak se brojanje valova mijenja sa svakim iznenadenjem na trzistu…
bolje je drzati se klasicne TA.

ono sto ne bi bilo dobro je da probijemo 1650, tj. 61,8% fiba jer bi to znacilo gotovo sigurno ponistenje cijelog rasta…
a vec smo sad na klimavom terenu.

sto se tice Vlada, ne zelim dati nikakav komentar jer kad komentiram njegove analize on se
ljuti na mene, a i moderatori su mi prigovorili da reklamiram Vladov blog sto mi uopce nije bio cilj.

Evo par slicica Crobexa iz različitih perspektiva. Zaključak, možda smo se odbili a možda i nismo. Tjedni MACD se počeo okretati ali izgleda kao još jedan lažnjak u nizu. Volumeni i Stoch daju nadu da nastavljamo gore.

Neckline H&S-a probijen dok fibo odpor još nije savladan. Vjerujem, da će sutra, prekosutra ameri sa probojem na ispod 860 riješiti i to.

ernt…

Ajmo ovako… TA na crobexu daje više UP nego down.. TA na SP daje down, tu nema dileme (kažem TA, to nije moje mišljenje) E sad.. ono što bi mi, kakti pametni, jelte… trebali pokušati pronicnuti kolika će biti implikacija targeta šampona od ca 845 SP-a (ako se realizira) na crobex, s obzirom da smo ovisna burza (kao i sve eurošupačke) izuzev azije. to je pravo pitanje. dali ćemo za njima dolje još jedu stepenicu? da li ćemo ih čekati do te razine s obzirom da smo u neku ruku tu stepenicu već i odradili ( i previše) ili ćemo rasti i ignorirati taj 1. target i popuniti gap za zapadom na taj način ( a gap je stvorio Ivo).

To su prava pitanja i onaj koji uspije na to dati točan odgovor taj će (kratkoročno) najviše profitirati…ili najmanje izgubiti. pozz…

Možda i ovo pomogne u analizi crobeksa u prva 3 mjeseca ove godine.
http://www.jutarnji.hr/novac/bizzbuzz/clanak/art-2009,7,11,,169144.jl

To nije istina.
Možeš reći da je tvoje mišljenje da TA na Crobexu daje više UP nego down, ali ne kao da je to uistinu tako.

Moje znanje koje imam o TA mi govori da idemo down.

Cijenim struku, osobno neznam mnogo o tehničkoj analizi, ali laički smatram da ona djeluje na slijedeći način. Ako danas realni sektor izbaci neko dobro izvješće tada će tržište skočiti za … (tu pomaže analiza) ili u suprotnom ako izvješće bude loše past će maksimalno do …
Pokušaj da tehničkom analizom predvidimo kakvo će biti izvješće mislim da nije realan.