Natural Gas

The Euro shows more zonal winds across Canada, less cold penetrating to the CONUS, and less of that low pressure loop around stuff from NE Canada. It looks really warm to me. The GFS seems like it is threatening that kind of higher latitude zonal wind across Canada, but it doesn’t happen to the same extent that the Euro is forecasting.

El Nino is undoubtedly playing a role in some of the warmth. The stream going into the Pacific NW is being fed by deep tropical convection west of the dateline, the forecast shows warm flow coming up from the Southern Hemisphere for a bit, the Pacific Jet shows signs of strengthening more, and there is some so-so deep tropical convection that has been going on in the Central and East Pacific.

I am thinking, however, that the lack of cold is more being caused by how hot it has been earlier in the year. First, 2015 was the hottest year on record globally and one of the hottest for the CONUS. Then you had the El Nino thrown on top of that and a really warm December. Then the big storm over the New Year’s period and the storm that caused the NE blizzard both punched a lot of heat up into the Arctic.

It kind of seems like something pretty dramatic would have to happen for us to get much more cold, like some kind of Siberian Express coming our way, or some kind of even bigger loop around from the Hudson Bay area. Can’t rule that out this year with how funky the Arctic has been and the warming that has been hitting the Stratosphere (and the forecast still has more warming jumping around).

But, it seems to me that somewhat normal system alignment and flow is probably going to yield pretty warm weather for at least the first week of March and probably longer than that. If unusual weather happens, it seems to me that is more likely to favor really warm as opposed to really cold. The lows and cold in NE Canada seem to threaten to move off, but have still hung around. More zonal wind might pull them further to the northeast.

Siberia still has a ton of cold, of course, but it has been leaking that to its south the past few days and the forecasts seem to show it continuing to move in that direction. That doesn’t mean cold from that area won’t come our way, but I would think it would make it somewhat less likely.

It also seems that globally we are overdue for more zonal winds in the higher latitudes. This El Nino has been unusual in that the zonal wind anomalies have been strongest in the higher latitudes, not in the region of the Pacific Jet where they are generally expected to be strongest during an El Nino. But lately even the higher latitudes haven’t had much in the way of zonal winds. Pretty much regardless of whether they are higher or lower in latitude, if we get more zonal wind I would expect that to have a warming effect on what is currently forecast.

I’m currently short and I don’t plan on touching that lightly. I think I see more possibilities for strong warming than I do for any significant cold.

storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) —
last week: 166 (3cdd 163hdd)
previous week: 206(1cdd 205hdd)
same week last yr: 218 (1cdd 217hdd)
avg: 219 (2cdd 217hdd)
next wk fcst 186 (0cdd 186dd)
* source: NOAA

same week last yr: -153
5-yr avg: -168

*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia:

my final estimate is -89 bcf

zakljucak, storage bearish, EIA report bearish, midterm forecast bearish, proizvodnja neutral, short term fprecast opasnost od jos jednog polarnog udara , mala, ali oprezno s ovim bullish,

sve u svemu,short, testirat ce dno, march i april, razina koju ja gledam kao long term bottom je oko 1.5

– dgaz, jos je dobro ispalo koliko sam se zajebao sa procjenom prije 3 dana, izasao sa malim plusom, sto se fundamenata tice, svaki tjedan su sve bolji i bolji, rig count stalno u negativnom i prosli tjedan -8, elektrane trose sve vise i vise, a brzo ce i dugo toplo ljeto. obzirom da smo samo 25 % gore od dna, moj savjet svima je trend iz your frend, sto se tice lvl etf ugaz mi je osobono bolji izbor, likvidnost je sve veca i veca, a prinosi najbolji. ugaz je jucer bio na 100 % od dna, koristit ovakve dane i pojacati pozicije. poz.

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