Drage braćo i sestre,
odlučio sam otvoriti ovu temu temeljem neumitnih činjenica koje su svaki dan sve očitije.
Imamo slijedeće faktore:
- konstantan porast nezaposlenosti,
- konzumer koji jednostavno izumire,
- opća nelikvidnost usprkos upumpanim stimulusima,
- zamrznuta kreditna tržišta gdje je krvotok još uvijek u arestu,
- veliki deflatorni pritisci iako svijet pokušavaju uplašiti inflacijom,
- monetarna komponenta poznatija kao Paul Kasriel's "infallible recession indicator"
- M1 i CPI indikatori,
- lista događaja i objašnjenja s kojom su se složili i makroekonomisti kraljevskog instituta iz Londona:
1.
Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
2.
State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
3.
State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
4.
Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
5.
Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
6.
Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
7.
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
8.
Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
9.
Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
10.
Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
11.
Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
12.
Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
13.
Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
14.
Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930's photos of soup lines
15.
Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
16.
China's sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
17.
Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
18.
The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
19.
Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
20.
New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
21.
Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
22.
The "antitaxes" message is a new bubble, a new version of the American dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises
Will the next meltdown, the third of the 21st Century, trigger a second Great Depression? Or will the 2007-08 crisis simply morph into a painful extension of today's mess to 2011 and beyond, with no new bull market, no economic recovery as our new president hopes?
Perhaps some of the first 29 problems may be solved separately, but collectively, after building on a failed ideology, they spell disaster. So listen closely to "leading indicator" No. 30:
At a recent Reuters Global Finance Summit former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead was interviewed. He was also Ronald Reagan's Deputy Secretary of State and a former chairman of the N.Y. Fed. He says America's problems will take years and will burn trillions.
He sees "nothing but large increases in the deficit ... I think it would be worse than the depression. ... Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody's and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds." It'll get worse because "the public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of