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Criticism of Technical Analysis
The question of documented evidence
Although chartists believe that their techniques provide excess returns over time, not all research agrees with this conclusion. Some academics and fundamentalist market participants believe that technical analysis has no predictive power. According to some studies, after trading costs are factored in, the returns generated by many technical analysis strategies may underperform a simple buy and hold strategy.
On the other hand, many market participants, especially active traders (traders who are looking for quick profits), defend the practice and believe (and in some cases demonstrate) that it can be profitable. There is extensive research demonstrating that some technical analysis methods are effective, with at least 59 studies showing that particular technical analysis methods have provided statistically significant positive returns. [1] [2]. Furthermore, technical analysts counterclaim that buy and hold strategies do not always work either, and that opportunites to make money in markets always exist even if the market overall does not move.
Critics of technical analysis include very well known investors. Warren Buffett has exclaimed, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." Peter Lynch suggested that "Charts are great for predicting the past." To be sure, both the aforementioned are "investors" not "active traders" and are almost exclusively fundamental analysts. As stated earlier, the staunchest proponents of technical analysis tend to be active traders and technical analysis often is at odds with fundamental analysis.
Proponents of Technical Analysis
To many traders, trading in the direction of the trend is the most effective means to be profitable in financial or commodities markets. John Henry, Larry Hite, Ed Seykota, Richard Dennis, Bruce Kovner, and Michael Marcus (some of the so-called Market Wizards in the popular book of the same name by Jack D. Schwager) have each amassed massive fortunes through the use of technical analysis and its concepts. George Lane, a technical analyst, coined one of the most popular phrases on Wall Street, "The trend is your friend!"
Many non-arbitrage algorithmic trading systems rely on the idea of trend-following, as do many hedge funds. A relatively recent trend, both in research and industrial practice, has been the development of increasingly sophisticated automated trading strategies. These often rely on underlying technical analysis principles (see algorithmic trading article for an overview).
Slaven Andrašić, Poslovni dnevnik