U prilogu je interni dopis jednog od investicijskih fondova

EMERGING MARKETS – THE “Y” THING

The future prospects of the Croatian oil-pipeline company JANAF
(Jadranski naftovod):

JANAF is an end-extention of the two other great oil pipelines: PEOP
(for Caspian sea oil transport) and Druzba Adria (for the central Russan
oil transport). To simplify the matter: if we see Druzba Adria and PEOP
pipelines as the two upper parts of the letter “Y”, than the JANAF
pipeline would be its lower part. JANAF would be where the oil from the
PEOP and Druzba Adria pipelines would flow to.

PEOP agreement was signed a few days ago – so that PEOP
will be fully operational by the year 2012. The American and Russian
representatives were present at the event.

Unlike the PEOP pipeline, Druzba Adria is already completly built –
only waiting for the agreement to be signed, making it possible for the
Russian oil to flow imediatelly afterwords.

In May 2004., the Russian president Putin announced (in
front of the Russian parlament Duma) that Druzba Adria oil pipeline is a
Russian national interst number one (!!) The purpose of this pipeline is
the transport of the Russian oil to the Adriatic sea and thereafter, by
means of tankers further to the United States.

How resolved are the Russians ?

Untill now the Russian oil is transported by pipelines to the
Ukrainian ports. Thereafter it is loaded to tankers that carried it to
its end destination – the USA. The problem that is in the way is the
Turky’s effort to significantly reduce the tanker transport through the
narrouw and therefore hazardous Bosporous and Dardanll streit (ecology,
tourism etc.).

NASTAVAK PRETHODNOGA:

The sole benefitiary of the NO GO for the project would, hance, be
Ukraine. That is the reason why the Ukrainian parlament refused to give
its OK for Druzba Adria in November, 2003. Only three days after that
decission there were anti-government protests held in the streets of
Kiev (this was BEFORE the “orange revolution”). In Fabruary, 2004. the
Ukrainian parlament signs its agreement with the Druzba Adria project.
Coincidence ?

Due to the ecology (and closely connected tourism) reasons, Croatia
has so fare managed to postpond the signement of the Druzba Adria
agreement. Ever since, any other Croatian initiative to either invite
Putin to visit Croatia or to make the Croatian prime minister visit
Russia was met with the cold statement from the Russians that no such
visits were forseeable in the near future if the Druzba Adria agreement
was not signed by the Croatian government first.

Croatian prime minister (Mr. Sanader) has recently made a
TV statement that Croatia is interested in both PEOP and Druzba Adria
agreements and that Croatia intends to double the presently existing
JANAF pipeline. This was further confirmed with his newspaper comment
(“Poslovni dnevnik” – Croatian bussiness newspaper) that he is in favour
of Druzba Adria. The very next day, the arrival of Putin to Croatia was
“miraculously” announced by the Russians.

President Putin is to visit Croatia for the energy
releted summit held in Zagreb (Croatia) on June 23rd, this year. The
very consent of president Putin to comme to Croatia is (in my modest
oppinion) a sign that the Druzba Adria agreement will be signed at that
time or perhaps even sooner. The prices of the JANAF stock are expected
to go skyward. And yes, time(ing) IS money !

It is not long ago that the JANAF pipeline has been
techinicly checked and verifyed as safe for transport. It was also
enabled to transport the oil in a reverse direction as well. This was
utilised by the Slovak government that has signed the agreement with
JANAF to store and deliver the oil to Slovakia in case Russia decides to
turn off the oil supply again in the future. In that case, the oil would
be transported from the other oil-supplying countries by tankers to
Croatia, stored there and on a need to be basis pumped by JANAF to the
heart of Europe (Slovakia).

It is now time to make a killing in the market, BEFORE Putin’s visit
to Croatia – if you dare, that is.

Usefull insight:

Conoco Philips has an approx. 10% interest in Lukoil,
which has a 13% interest in Hungarian MOL, which has a 25% interest in
INA (Croatian oil industry company), which has a 16% interst in JANAF.
And Lukoil has the gas pump stations on the eastern US coast !

Past tense:

To counter the (untill that time) very strong ecology
opposition and a solid Croatian public anti-Druzba Adria sentiment a few
months ago, the Croatian economist and a future candidate for the
position of the Prime Minister, Mr. Ljubo Jurcic in a TV interview said:
“If the Americans and Russians show interest that the oil will go in
this direction, and they do show this interest, than the oil WILL go in
this direction”. This anti-Druzba Adria sentiment is fortunatelly not
present any more in Croatia, ever since the Russians have turned off the
oil and gas supply to Ukraine, Belorus and European Union countries.
Needless to say, Croatia is also oil dependent.

In his interview (July, 17th 2005) for a Croatian newspaper Jutarnji
list, the board director of the Croatian oil company INA, Mr. Tomislav
Dragichevich, said that with the Druzba Adria agreement, JANAF’s current
capacity of 5 million tons of transported oil per year would increase to
25 million.
Bearing in mind the additional (already signed) PEOP agreement and a
Croatian prime minister’s recentl

3. DIO:

Bearing in mind the additional (already signed) PEOP agreement and a
Croatian prime minister’s recently publicly announced further doubling
the existing JANAF pipelines and the reverse direction transport
enabling, you can do the math yourself.

Mr. Engdahl (the author of “The century of war”) as a guest of the
Croatian ministry of economy emphasized the advanatageous geographic
position of Croatia as an oil transport crossroad. He also announced the
publishing of his next book that would cover the issue of Druzba Adria
in specific.

Whatever the reason, there were some 70.000 US troops reported (in
October 2005) to be relocated from the central Europe and Asia to
Romania. This is the country where the PEOP pipeline begins. Is the
military in Romania ment as a logistical support for the troops in Iraq
or as a security for the PEPO pipeline is for you to decide.

In todays’ “Jutarnji list” (May 25th) there is announced the arrival of
president Putin’s envoy who is to prepare the arrival of Putin in
Croatia.